"In the range of climate models, those that most successfully simulate the past predict some of the worst-case scenarios for the future, researchers found. "
"New research says we should pay more attention to climate models that point to a hotter future and toss out projections that point to less warming.
The findings, published Wednesday in the journal Nature, suggest that international policy makers and authorities are relying on projections that underestimate how much the planet will warm—and, by extension, underestimate the cuts in greenhouse gas emissions needed to stave off catastrophic impacts of climate change.
"The basic idea is that we have a range of projections on future warming that came from these climate models, and for scientific interest and political interest, we wanted to narrow this range," said Patrick Brown, co-author of the study. "We find that the models that do the best at simulating the recent past project more warming.""