"As of this week, the average of the group of forecast models used to predict the intensity of El Niño are  calling for an event that would surpass the record-strong El Niño of 1997-1998.

El Nino, which is a measure of how abnormally warm the tropical Pacific Ocean is, can be classified as “very strong” if surface waters are running at least 2 degrees Celsius warmer than average for at least three months in a row. While this can be a difficult metric to achieve — it’s only happened twice before — it’s looking more like this year will not only jump that hurdle, but also surpass the old record.

Colorado State meteorologist Phil Klotzbach plotted the 1997-1998 El Niño on top of the most recent forecast, showing how the model average — in yellow below — is warmer than the previous record El Niño all the way through spring of next year. It’s close, and only slightly stronger — but it’s a big change compared to forecasts from recent months."

Angela Fritz reports for the Capital Weather Gang in the Washington Post August 21, 2015. [2]