"The disturbance is predicted to be a strengthening Tropical Storm Ernesto across the northern Leeward Islands on Tuesday and near Puerto Rico on Wednesday."

"Even as Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby continued to dump flooding rains from the Southeast U.S. to Southeast Canada on Friday, the next tropical threat from the Atlantic was already looming. Computer models predict that a large tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic is encountering too much wind shear and dry air to develop through Saturday, but the wave will encounter a more favorable environment for development by Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The disturbance was designated Invest 98L by NHC on Friday night and upgraded to Potential Tropical Cyclone 5 on Sunday afternoon. Conditions were favorable for development on Sunday, with moderate wind shear of 10-20 knots, ocean temperatures a very warm 28.5 degrees Celsius (83°F), and a moderately moist atmosphere. Satellite images Sunday morning showed a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that was exhibiting a good degree of spin. Conditions for development will continue to be favorable for most of the week, and PTC 5 is predicted to become Tropical Storm Ernesto by late Monday or Tuesday, when it is likely to be moving through the Leeward Islands."

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson report for Yale Climate Connections August 9, 2024. [2]