"Why We Still Don’t Yet Know How Bad Climate Migration Will Get"

"The complicated ways climate change affects migration, explained."

"As sea levels rise, temperatures become unbearable, and disasters grow more severe, tens of millions of people may not be able to stay where they are. Beyond the human toll it will exact, this climate-driven migration is poised to disrupt economic and political stability, which could fuel conflict.

The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations’ climate research unit, examines the consequences of rising average temperatures for people around the world. The 3,600-page report provides one of the sharpest and most comprehensive views of a warmer world, particularly what happens when people hit the limits of what they can adapt to and are forced to move. The report finds that most climate migration is poised to occur inside countries rather than across borders, and that some climate change effects could actually decrease migration in some areas. It also counters misconceptions about why people move.

Since the last major IPCC report in 2014, authors said they incorporated more social science into their conclusions in the latest installment, giving them far more confidence in how they think climate change will reshape where people live. “The science seems to be more convergent at this point in terms of the kinds of mobility patterns we’re talking about,” said Kanta Kumari Rigaud, lead environmental specialist at the World Bank whose work on migration was cited in the IPCC report."

Umair Irfan reports for Vox March 16, 2022.

Source: Vox, 03/17/2022